Population and Associated Issues

India's demographic story

In April 2023, according to UN estimates, India overtook China as the world's most populous country, with about 1.43 billion people; by 2025 the figure is around 1.46 billion. India holds about 18 per cent of the world's people on 2.4 per cent of its land. The last census was held in 2011 (1.21 billion). The next census, the first to be fully digital and to include caste enumeration since 1931, is scheduled with 1 March 2027 as its reference date (1 October 2026 for snow-bound areas). GS Paper 1 asks about "population and associated issues", which covers growth, structure, the demographic dividend, ageing, migration and policy.

Phases of population growth

The demographic transition

The demographic transition model describes how societies move from high birth and death rates to low ones:

1. Stage 1 – high birth and death rates, slow growth.
2. Stage 2 – death rates fall (medicine, food), birth rates stay high → rapid growth.
3. Stage 3 – birth rates fall (education, urbanisation, family planning) → growth slows.
4. Stage 4 – both low → stable population.
5. Stage 5 (in some countries) – births below deaths → shrinking and ageing population (Japan, South Korea, parts of Europe).

India is in the late third stage. Its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – the average number of children per woman – fell to 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019–21), below the replacement level of 2.1, and the SRS puts it at about 1.9–2.0. Wide gaps remain: Bihar (about 3.0), Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh are above replacement, while Sikkim, Goa, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and West Bengal are well below it.

Key demographic indicators

Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state, Bihar the most densely populated large state, Sikkim the least populous, and Arunachal Pradesh the least densely populated.

The demographic dividend

The demographic dividend is the boost to economic growth that can come when the working-age population (15–64) grows faster than the dependent population of children and the elderly. India's working-age share is about 68 per cent and will peak around the 2040s; its dependency ratio is falling. China, South Korea and the East Asian "tigers" used their dividend through mass education, health and labour-intensive manufacturing.

Turning the dividend into a benefit requires:

• Education and skills – the PLFS shows high unemployment among educated youth, and only a small share of the workforce has formal vocational training; Skill India, PM Kaushal Vikas Yojana and NEP 2020 aim to close this gap.
• Health and nutrition – stunting affected 35.5 per cent of children under five in NFHS-5, which reduces future productivity.
• Jobs – large-scale employment in manufacturing and services, not just agriculture.
• Women's participation – the dividend is much larger if more women join paid work.

If these fail, the bulge of young people can become a "demographic disaster" of unemployment, frustration and unrest. There is also a timing gap: southern states are ageing already, while the northern states will have their dividend later – which matters for migration, federal finance and the delimitation debate.

Ageing

People aged 60 and above were about 10.5 per cent of India's population in 2022 and are projected to reach about 20 per cent by 2050 (UNFPA *India Ageing Report 2023*). Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal and Punjab already have older populations. Challenges include the feminisation of ageing (more widows), weak pension coverage, chronic disease, and loneliness as families shrink and children migrate. Policy responses include the Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act (2007), the National Social Assistance Programme, Atal Pension Yojana, and Ayushman Bharat cover for all citizens aged 70 and above (from 2024).

Migration

Census 2011 counted about 45.6 crore internal migrants (37 per cent of the population) by place of last residence. Marriage is the main reason for female migration, and work for male migration. The biggest flows are from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat and Punjab. The COVID-19 lockdown of 2020 exposed the lack of social security for migrant workers, leading to the One Nation One Ration Card scheme and the e-Shram portal for unorganised workers. India is also the largest recipient of remittances in the world, receiving about $129 billion in 2024 (World Bank).

Population policy

• 1952: India became the first country to launch a national family planning programme.
• 1976: the National Population Policy linked family planning to development; the Emergency's forced sterilisations (1975–77) created a backlash.
• 1977: renamed family welfare, voluntary approach.
• 1994: the Cairo International Conference on Population and Development shifted focus to reproductive rights and women's health.
• National Population Policy 2000: immediate aim to meet unmet need for contraception; medium-term aim of TFR 2.1 by 2010; long-term aim of a stable population by 2045.
• Mission Parivar Vikas (2016) in high-fertility districts; expanded contraceptive choices.
• Some states (Assam, Uttar Pradesh draft) have debated two-child norms for government jobs or local elections; critics warn these harm women and the poor and are unnecessary as fertility falls anyway.

Population, resources and the environment

The link between population and resources is debated. Thomas Malthus (1798) argued that population grows geometrically while food grows arithmetically, so famine and disease would act as checks. India's experience – the Green Revolution turned a food-deficit country into a major food exporter – shows that technology and institutions can break this trap. Economists such as Ester Boserup argued that population pressure can even spur innovation. Still, the pressure is real in some forms: per capita water availability has fallen below the "water-stressed" mark of 1,700 cubic metres, land holdings have become tiny (average about 1.08 hectares), and dense cities face pollution, congestion and housing shortages.

Most experts now argue that the problem is less the number of people and more their quality of life and distribution – health, skills, gender equality and sustainable consumption. The best "contraceptive", as the saying from the 1974 Bucharest conference goes, is development: states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu cut fertility through female education, health care and women's autonomy rather than coercion. India's population is expected to peak at about 1.7 billion in the early 2060s (UN World Population Prospects) and then decline slowly, so planning must now include both the youth bulge and the coming wave of ageing.

Mains practice question

India has crossed replacement-level fertility. Discuss the opportunities and challenges this creates in terms of the demographic dividend, ageing and regional disparities. (250 words)

Answer framework

• Intro: TFR 2.0, largest population, census 2027.
• Opportunities: working-age bulge, savings, labour supply, consumer market.
• Challenges: skills, jobs, health, women's work; ageing south vs young north; delimitation.
• Policy: education, health, women, migration support, pensions.
• Conclusion: a closing window.